feat(#13): Live tyre-degradation & pit-window panel

Implemented by claude via .agents/dev dispatch.

frontend/src/components/live/TyreDegPanel.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
+import { useEffect, useMemo, useState } from 'react'
+import { teamColor } from '../../utils'
+import type { LiveTimingRow } from '../../lib/live'
+import { compoundClass, driverCode, tyreLabel } from '../../lib/live'
+import { sparklinePoints } from '../../lib/gapHistory'
+import { isRaceSession } from '../../lib/battles'
+import type { StintHistoryMap } from '../../lib/tyredeg'
+import {
+  PIT_LOSS_SECONDS,
+  degradationModel,
+  estimatePitRejoin,
+  formatSlope,
+  recordStintSamples,
+  stintInputFromRow,
+} from '../../lib/tyredeg'
+import '../../styles/tyredeg.css'
+
+const TOP_DRIVER_COUNT = 10
+const SPARK_WIDTH = 64
+const SPARK_HEIGHT = 16
+
+interface Props {
+  rows: LiveTimingRow[]
+  sessionType: string | undefined
+  pinned: string[]
+}
+
+function StintSparkline({ seconds }: { seconds: number[] }) {
+  if (seconds.length < 2) return <span className="tyredeg-spark-empty">·</span>
+  const points = sparklinePoints(seconds, SPARK_WIDTH, SPARK_HEIGHT)
+  return (
+    <svg
+      className="tyredeg-spark"
+      width={SPARK_WIDTH}
+      height={SPARK_HEIGHT}
+      viewBox={`0 0 ${SPARK_WIDTH} ${SPARK_HEIGHT}`}
+      aria-hidden="true"
+      focusable="false"
+    >
+      <polyline
+        points={points}
+        fill="none"
+        stroke="currentColor"
+        strokeWidth="1.2"
+        strokeLinejoin="round"
+        strokeLinecap="round"
+      />
+    </svg>
+  )
+}
+
+export function TyreDegPanel({ rows, sessionType, pinned }: Props) {
+  const [collapsed, setCollapsed] = useState(false)
+  const [stints, setStints] = useState<StintHistoryMap>({})
+
+  // One lap-history update per received snapshot (rows is rebuilt per snapshot).
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (rows.length === 0) return
+    setStints((prev) => recordStintSamples(prev, rows.map(stintInputFromRow)))
+  }, [rows])
+
+  const isRace = isRaceSession(sessionType)
+
+  const visible = useMemo(
+    () =>
+      rows.filter(
+        (row) =>
+          row.Position > 0 &&
+          !row.Driver.Retired &&
+          (row.Position <= TOP_DRIVER_COUNT || pinned.includes(row.RacingNumber)),
+      ),
+    [rows, pinned],
+  )
+
+  if (visible.length === 0) return null
+
+  return (
+    <section className="live-tyredeg-panel" data-testid="tyredeg-panel">
+      <button
+        type="button"
+        className="sec-header tyredeg-toggle"
+        onClick={() => setCollapsed((prev) => !prev)}
+        aria-expanded={!collapsed}
+      >
+        <span className="sec-title">Tyre Deg &amp; Pit Window</span>
+        {isRace && <span className="sec-meta">rejoin assumes ~{PIT_LOSS_SECONDS}s pit loss</span>}
+        <span className="tyredeg-chevron" aria-hidden="true">{collapsed ? '▸' : '▾'}</span>
+      </button>
+
+      {!collapsed && (
+        <div className="tyredeg-rows">
+          {visible.map((row) => {
+            const model = degradationModel(stints[row.RacingNumber]?.samples ?? [])
+            const rejoin = isRace ? estimatePitRejoin(rows, row.RacingNumber) : null
+            return (
+              <div className="tyredeg-row" key={row.RacingNumber} data-testid="tyredeg-row">
+                <span className="tyredeg-pos mono">P{row.Position}</span>
+                <span className="drv-bar" style={{ background: teamColor(row.Info?.TeamColour) }} />
+                <span className="drv-code">{driverCode(row)}</span>
+                <span className={`tyre-badge ${compoundClass(row.Tyre?.Compound)}`}>{tyreLabel(row.Tyre)}</span>
+                {model ? (
+                  <>
+                    <span className={`tyredeg-trend tyredeg-trend-${model.trend}`}>
+                      <StintSparkline seconds={model.samples.map((sample) => sample.seconds)} />
+                    </span>
+                    <span className={`tyredeg-slope mono tyredeg-trend-${model.trend}`}>
+                      {formatSlope(model.slope)}
+                    </span>
+                  </>
+                ) : (
+                  <span className="tyredeg-warmup">warming up</span>
+                )}
+                {rejoin && (
+                  <span className="tyredeg-rejoin mono" title={`Pits now: rejoins ~P${rejoin.rejoinPosition}`}>
+                    → ~P{rejoin.rejoinPosition}
+                    {rejoin.aheadCode && rejoin.behindCode && (
+                      <span className="tyredeg-rejoin-between">
+                        {rejoin.aheadCode} · {rejoin.behindCode}
+                      </span>
+                    )}
+                  </span>
+                )}
+              </div>
+            )
+          })}
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </section>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/lib/tyredeg.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,271 @@
+// Tyre degradation + pit-window estimation for the live timing page.
+// Pure functions only — no React, no side effects — so everything is unit-testable.
+//
+// Lap-time samples are accumulated client-side from successive SSE snapshots
+// (mirroring the gapHistory/battles precedent); nothing here talks to the server.
+
+import type { LiveTimingRow } from './live'
+import { driverCode } from './live'
+import { parseIntervalSeconds } from './gapHistory'
+
+/**
+ * Rough typical pit-lane time loss (entry + stop + exit vs a flying lap), in
+ * seconds. Per-track values are deliberately out of scope for v1.
+ */
+export const PIT_LOSS_SECONDS = 22
+
+/** Minimum clean laps in the current stint before a slope is trustworthy. */
+export const MIN_CLEAN_LAPS = 4
+
+/**
+ * Laps more than this many seconds off the stint median are treated as
+ * outliers (traffic, spins, safety car) and excluded from the fit.
+ */
+export const OUTLIER_DELTA_SECONDS = 5
+
+/**
+ * Slope classification thresholds (seconds per lap):
+ *   slope <= -DEG_SLOPE_THRESHOLD  -> 'improving' (track evolution, fuel burn dominating)
+ *   slope >= +DEG_SLOPE_THRESHOLD  -> 'degrading' (tyre wear dominating)
+ *   otherwise                      -> 'stable'
+ */
+export const DEG_SLOPE_THRESHOLD = 0.05
+
+/** Safety cap so a very long stint cannot grow the buffer unbounded. */
+export const MAX_STINT_SAMPLES = 80
+
+export type DegTrend = 'improving' | 'stable' | 'degrading'
+
+export interface StintSample {
+  lap: number
+  seconds: number
+}
+
+export interface DriverStintHistory {
+  compound: string
+  tyreAge: number
+  lastLapNumber: number
+  lastLapTime: string
+  /** The next completed lap is an out-lap (fresh stint) and must be discarded. */
+  skipNextLap: boolean
+  samples: StintSample[]
+}
+
+/** Per-driver current-stint lap history, keyed by racing number. */
+export type StintHistoryMap = Record<string, DriverStintHistory>
+
+export interface StintLapInput {
+  racingNumber: string
+  lapNumber: number
+  lastLapTime: string
+  compound: string
+  tyreAge: number
+  inPit: boolean
+  pitOut: boolean
+}
+
+/**
+ * Parse an F1 live-timing lap time string ("1:23.456", "83.456") into seconds.
+ * Same conventions as parseIntervalSeconds, but a lap time is never signed and
+ * never a lapped/leader marker; zero or negative values are rejected.
+ */
+export function parseLapTimeSeconds(raw: string | null | undefined): number | null {
+  const value = parseIntervalSeconds(raw)
+  if (value === null || value <= 0) return null
+  return value
+}
+
+export function stintInputFromRow(row: LiveTimingRow): StintLapInput {
+  return {
+    racingNumber: row.RacingNumber,
+    lapNumber: row.Driver.NumberOfLaps || 0,
+    lastLapTime: row.Driver.LastLapTime || '',
+    compound: row.Tyre?.Compound || '',
+    tyreAge: row.Tyre?.Age ?? 0,
+    inPit: Boolean(row.Driver.InPit),
+    pitOut: Boolean(row.Driver.PitOut),
+  }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Record one snapshot's worth of lap samples for each driver's current stint.
+ * Returns a new map (input is not mutated); drivers missing from `inputs` are
+ * pruned.
+ *
+ * A lap counts as completed when LastLapTime changes to a new non-empty value
+ * (NumberOfLaps can tick before the lap time arrives, so the time string is
+ * the trigger; a sample for the same lap number is replaced, not duplicated).
+ * The stint buffer resets when the compound changes or the tyre age drops
+ * (new set fitted), and laps completed in the pit lane (in-lap), on pit exit
+ * (out-lap), or immediately after a reset are excluded.
+ */
+export function recordStintSamples(
+  history: StintHistoryMap,
+  inputs: ReadonlyArray<StintLapInput>,
+): StintHistoryMap {
+  const next: StintHistoryMap = {}
+
+  for (const input of inputs) {
+    if (!input.racingNumber) continue
+
+    const prior = history[input.racingNumber]
+    if (!prior) {
+      next[input.racingNumber] = {
+        compound: input.compound,
+        tyreAge: input.tyreAge,
+        lastLapNumber: input.lapNumber,
+        lastLapTime: input.lastLapTime,
+        skipNextLap: false,
+        samples: [],
+      }
+      continue
+    }
+
+    let samples = prior.samples
+    let skipNextLap = prior.skipNextLap
+
+    const compoundChanged = Boolean(input.compound) && Boolean(prior.compound) && input.compound !== prior.compound
+    const freshSet = input.tyreAge < prior.tyreAge
+    if (compoundChanged || freshSet || input.inPit) {
+      // Stint over (or a new one starting): drop the old laps and flag the
+      // upcoming out-lap for exclusion.
+      samples = []
+      skipNextLap = true
+    }
+
+    const lapCompleted = Boolean(input.lastLapTime) && input.lastLapTime !== prior.lastLapTime
+    if (lapCompleted) {
+      const seconds = parseLapTimeSeconds(input.lastLapTime)
+      const dirty = input.inPit || input.pitOut || skipNextLap
+      if (seconds !== null && !dirty) {
+        const last = samples[samples.length - 1]
+        if (last && last.lap === input.lapNumber) {
+          samples = [...samples.slice(0, -1), { lap: input.lapNumber, seconds }]
+        } else {
+          samples = [...samples, { lap: input.lapNumber, seconds }]
+          if (samples.length > MAX_STINT_SAMPLES) {
+            samples = samples.slice(samples.length - MAX_STINT_SAMPLES)
+          }
+        }
+      }
+      if (!input.inPit) skipNextLap = false
+    }
+
+    next[input.racingNumber] = {
+      compound: input.compound || prior.compound,
+      tyreAge: input.tyreAge,
+      lastLapNumber: input.lapNumber,
+      lastLapTime: input.lastLapTime || prior.lastLapTime,
+      skipNextLap,
+      samples,
+    }
+  }
+
+  return next
+}
+
+export interface DegModel {
+  /** Least-squares slope of lap time vs lap number, in seconds per lap. */
+  slope: number
+  trend: DegTrend
+  /** Clean (outlier-filtered) samples the fit ran over, in lap order. */
+  samples: StintSample[]
+}
+
+/** Drop laps more than OUTLIER_DELTA_SECONDS off the stint median. */
+export function cleanStintSamples(
+  samples: ReadonlyArray<StintSample>,
+  maxDelta = OUTLIER_DELTA_SECONDS,
+): StintSample[] {
+  if (samples.length === 0) return []
+  const sorted = samples.map((sample) => sample.seconds).sort((a, b) => a - b)
+  const mid = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2)
+  const median = sorted.length % 2 === 1 ? sorted[mid] : (sorted[mid - 1] + sorted[mid]) / 2
+  return samples.filter((sample) => Math.abs(sample.seconds - median) <= maxDelta)
+}
+
+/**
+ * Fit a linear degradation model over the stint's clean laps.
+ * Returns null with fewer than MIN_CLEAN_LAPS clean samples — the caller
+ * should show a "warming up" placeholder rather than a junk slope.
+ */
+export function degradationModel(samples: ReadonlyArray<StintSample>): DegModel | null {
+  const clean = cleanStintSamples(samples)
+  if (clean.length < MIN_CLEAN_LAPS) return null
+
+  const n = clean.length
+  const meanLap = clean.reduce((sum, s) => sum + s.lap, 0) / n
+  const meanSec = clean.reduce((sum, s) => sum + s.seconds, 0) / n
+
+  let numerator = 0
+  let denominator = 0
+  for (const sample of clean) {
+    numerator += (sample.lap - meanLap) * (sample.seconds - meanSec)
+    denominator += (sample.lap - meanLap) ** 2
+  }
+  if (denominator === 0) return null
+
+  const slope = numerator / denominator
+  const trend: DegTrend =
+    slope <= -DEG_SLOPE_THRESHOLD ? 'improving' : slope >= DEG_SLOPE_THRESHOLD ? 'degrading' : 'stable'
+
+  return { slope, trend, samples: clean }
+}
+
+/** "+0.08s/lap" / "-0.12s/lap" display form. */
+export function formatSlope(slope: number): string {
+  const sign = slope >= 0 ? '+' : '−'
+  return `${sign}${Math.abs(slope).toFixed(2)}s/lap`
+}
+
+export interface PitRejoinEstimate {
+  rejoinPosition: number
+  /** Cars behind that would get past during the stop. */
+  positionsLost: number
+  /** Driver code directly ahead after rejoining, if any. */
+  aheadCode: string | null
+  /** Driver code directly behind after rejoining, if any. */
+  behindCode: string | null
+}
+
+/**
+ * Estimate where a driver rejoins after a pit stop costing `pitLoss` seconds.
+ *
+ * Walks the cars behind the driver, accumulating their Interval (gap to car
+ * ahead) values: every car whose cumulative gap to the driver is under the
+ * pit loss gets past. An unparsable interval (lapped marker like "1L") ends
+ * the walk — those cars are at least a lap down and stay behind. Cars in the
+ * pits or retired are excluded from the ladder.
+ */
+export function estimatePitRejoin(
+  rows: ReadonlyArray<LiveTimingRow>,
+  racingNumber: string,
+  pitLoss = PIT_LOSS_SECONDS,
+): PitRejoinEstimate | null {
+  const ladder = rows
+    .filter((row) => row.Position > 0 && !row.Driver.Retired && !row.Driver.InPit)
+    .sort((a, b) => a.Position - b.Position)
+
+  const index = ladder.findIndex((row) => row.RacingNumber === racingNumber)
+  if (index === -1) return null
+
+  let cumulative = 0
+  let positionsLost = 0
+  for (let i = index + 1; i < ladder.length; i++) {
+    const gap = parseIntervalSeconds(ladder[i].Driver.Interval)
+    if (gap === null) break
+    cumulative += Math.max(0, gap)
+    if (cumulative >= pitLoss) break
+    positionsLost += 1
+  }
+
+  const ahead = positionsLost > 0 ? ladder[index + positionsLost] : ladder[index - 1]
+  const behind = ladder[index + positionsLost + 1]
+
+  return {
+    rejoinPosition: ladder[index].Position + positionsLost,
+    positionsLost,
+    aheadCode: ahead ? driverCode(ahead) : null,
+    behindCode: behind ? driverCode(behind) : null,
+  }
+}

frontend/src/pages/LiveTimingPage.tsx

@@ -22,6 +22,7 @@ import { BattleChips } from '../components/live/BattleChips'
 import { PinnedDrivers } from '../components/live/PinnedDrivers'
 import { RaceControlFeed } from '../components/live/RaceControlFeed'
 import { TrackMap } from '../components/live/TrackMap'
+import { TyreDegPanel } from '../components/live/TyreDegPanel'
 import { Radio } from 'lucide-react'
 
 type StreamStatus = 'connecting' | 'connected' | 'disconnected' | 'error'
@@ -193,6 +194,7 @@ export function LiveTimingPage() {
             driverInfo={snapshot.DriverInfo}
             loading={trackOutlineQuery.isLoading}
           />
+          <TyreDegPanel rows={rows} sessionType={snapshot.Session?.SessionType} pinned={pinned} />
           <div className="live-columns">
             <div className="live-tower-col">
               <div className="sec-header">

frontend/src/styles/tyredeg.css

@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
+/* Live tyre-degradation & pit-window panel (see components/live/TyreDegPanel.tsx) */
+
+.live-tyredeg-panel {
+  margin-bottom: var(--s5);
+}
+
+.tyredeg-toggle {
+  width: 100%;
+  background: none;
+  border: none;
+  padding: 0;
+  cursor: pointer;
+  text-align: left;
+}
+
+.tyredeg-chevron {
+  margin-left: auto;
+  font-size: 10px;
+  color: var(--text-3);
+}
+
+.tyredeg-rows {
+  display: flex;
+  flex-direction: column;
+  gap: 3px;
+}
+
+.tyredeg-row {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: var(--s4);
+  padding: var(--s2) var(--s4);
+  background: var(--surface);
+  border: 1px solid var(--border);
+  border-radius: 3px;
+  font-size: 12px;
+}
+
+.tyredeg-row .drv-bar { height: 16px; }
+
+.tyredeg-pos {
+  min-width: 28px;
+  color: var(--text-2);
+  font-size: 11px;
+}
+
+.tyredeg-spark { display: block; }
+.tyredeg-spark-empty { color: var(--text-3); }
+
+.tyredeg-trend { display: inline-flex; align-items: center; }
+.tyredeg-trend-improving { color: var(--green); }
+.tyredeg-trend-stable    { color: var(--text-3); }
+.tyredeg-trend-degrading { color: #ff6b6b; }
+
+.tyredeg-slope {
+  min-width: 78px;
+  font-size: 11px;
+}
+
+.tyredeg-warmup {
+  color: var(--text-3);
+  font-size: 11px;
+  font-style: italic;
+}
+
+.tyredeg-rejoin {
+  margin-left: auto;
+  display: inline-flex;
+  align-items: baseline;
+  gap: var(--s3);
+  color: var(--text-2);
+  font-size: 11px;
+  white-space: nowrap;
+}
+
+.tyredeg-rejoin-between {
+  color: var(--text-3);
+  font-size: 10px;
+}
+
+@media (max-width: 640px) {
+  .tyredeg-rejoin-between { display: none; }
+  .tyredeg-slope { min-width: 0; }
+}

frontend/src/test/TyreDegPanel.test.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+import { fireEvent, render, screen } from '@testing-library/react'
+import { TyreDegPanel } from '../components/live/TyreDegPanel'
+import type { LiveTimingRow } from '../lib/live'
+import type { LiveDriverData, LiveTyreData } from '../types'
+
+function makeRow(
+  number: string,
+  position: number,
+  tla: string,
+  driver: Partial<LiveDriverData> = {},
+  tyre: Partial<LiveTyreData> = {},
+): LiveTimingRow {
+  return {
+    RacingNumber: number,
+    Position: position,
+    Driver: {
+      RacingNumber: number,
+      Position: position,
+      Interval: position === 1 ? '' : '+5.0',
+      GapToLeader: '',
+      LastLapTime: '1:30.000',
+      NumberOfLaps: 10,
+      InPit: false,
+      PitOut: false,
+      Retired: false,
+      ...driver,
+    } as LiveDriverData,
+    Info: {
+      RacingNumber: number,
+      BroadcastName: '',
+      Tla: tla,
+      TeamName: '',
+      TeamColour: '3671c6',
+      FirstName: '',
+      LastName: '',
+    },
+    Tyre: { Compound: 'MEDIUM', New: false, Age: 5, ...tyre } as LiveTyreData,
+  }
+}
+
+function snapshotRows(lap: number, lastLapTime: string): LiveTimingRow[] {
+  return [
+    makeRow('1', 1, 'VER', { NumberOfLaps: lap, LastLapTime: lastLapTime }),
+    makeRow('4', 2, 'NOR', { NumberOfLaps: lap, LastLapTime: lastLapTime }),
+  ]
+}
+
+describe('TyreDegPanel', () => {
+  it('shows a warming-up placeholder until enough clean laps accumulate', () => {
+    render(<TyreDegPanel rows={snapshotRows(3, '1:30.000')} sessionType="Race" pinned={[]} />)
+    const panel = screen.getByTestId('tyredeg-panel')
+    expect(panel).toHaveTextContent('VER')
+    expect(panel).toHaveTextContent('M +5')
+    expect(panel).toHaveTextContent('warming up')
+  })
+
+  it('renders slope and rejoin estimate once laps accumulate across snapshots', () => {
+    const { rerender } = render(
+      <TyreDegPanel rows={snapshotRows(1, '1:30.000')} sessionType="Race" pinned={[]} />,
+    )
+    // Five completed laps at +0.1s/lap after the first observed snapshot.
+    for (let lap = 2; lap <= 6; lap++) {
+      const time = `1:30.${String((lap - 1) * 100).padStart(3, '0')}`
+      rerender(<TyreDegPanel rows={snapshotRows(lap, time)} sessionType="Race" pinned={[]} />)
+    }
+
+    const panel = screen.getByTestId('tyredeg-panel')
+    expect(panel).toHaveTextContent('+0.10s/lap')
+    expect(panel).not.toHaveTextContent('warming up')
+    // VER pits from P1 with NOR +5.0 behind: NOR gets past -> rejoin ~P2.
+    expect(panel).toHaveTextContent('→ ~P2')
+  })
+
+  it('hides the rejoin estimate outside race sessions and collapses on toggle', () => {
+    render(<TyreDegPanel rows={snapshotRows(3, '1:30.000')} sessionType="Qualifying" pinned={[]} />)
+    const panel = screen.getByTestId('tyredeg-panel')
+    expect(panel).not.toHaveTextContent('~P')
+
+    expect(screen.getAllByTestId('tyredeg-row')).toHaveLength(2)
+    fireEvent.click(screen.getByRole('button', { name: /tyre deg/i }))
+    expect(screen.queryAllByTestId('tyredeg-row')).toHaveLength(0)
+  })
+
+  it('limits rows to the top ten plus pinned drivers', () => {
+    const rows = Array.from({ length: 15 }, (_, index) =>
+      makeRow(String(index + 1), index + 1, `D${index + 1}`),
+    )
+    render(<TyreDegPanel rows={rows} sessionType="Race" pinned={['14']} />)
+    expect(screen.getAllByTestId('tyredeg-row')).toHaveLength(11)
+    expect(screen.getByText('D14')).toBeInTheDocument()
+    expect(screen.queryByText('D12')).not.toBeInTheDocument()
+  })
+
+  it('renders nothing without rows', () => {
+    render(<TyreDegPanel rows={[]} sessionType="Race" pinned={[]} />)
+    expect(screen.queryByTestId('tyredeg-panel')).not.toBeInTheDocument()
+  })
+})

frontend/src/test/tyredeg.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,281 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+import {
+  DEG_SLOPE_THRESHOLD,
+  MIN_CLEAN_LAPS,
+  PIT_LOSS_SECONDS,
+  cleanStintSamples,
+  degradationModel,
+  estimatePitRejoin,
+  formatSlope,
+  parseLapTimeSeconds,
+  recordStintSamples,
+  stintInputFromRow,
+} from '../lib/tyredeg'
+import type { StintHistoryMap, StintLapInput, StintSample } from '../lib/tyredeg'
+import type { LiveTimingRow } from '../lib/live'
+import type { LiveDriverData } from '../types'
+
+function makeInput(overrides: Partial<StintLapInput> = {}): StintLapInput {
+  return {
+    racingNumber: '1',
+    lapNumber: 1,
+    lastLapTime: '1:30.000',
+    compound: 'MEDIUM',
+    tyreAge: 1,
+    inPit: false,
+    pitOut: false,
+    ...overrides,
+  }
+}
+
+/** Feed a sequence of snapshots for one driver through the accumulator. */
+function accumulate(snapshots: Array<Partial<StintLapInput>>): StintHistoryMap {
+  let history: StintHistoryMap = {}
+  for (const snapshot of snapshots) {
+    history = recordStintSamples(history, [makeInput(snapshot)])
+  }
+  return history
+}
+
+function makeRow(
+  number: string,
+  position: number,
+  tla: string,
+  driver: Partial<LiveDriverData> = {},
+): LiveTimingRow {
+  return {
+    RacingNumber: number,
+    Position: position,
+    Driver: {
+      RacingNumber: number,
+      Position: position,
+      Interval: '',
+      GapToLeader: '',
+      LastLapTime: '1:30.000',
+      NumberOfLaps: 10,
+      InPit: false,
+      PitOut: false,
+      Retired: false,
+      ...driver,
+    } as LiveDriverData,
+    Info: {
+      RacingNumber: number,
+      BroadcastName: '',
+      Tla: tla,
+      TeamName: '',
+      TeamColour: '3671c6',
+      FirstName: '',
+      LastName: '',
+    },
+  }
+}
+
+describe('parseLapTimeSeconds', () => {
+  it('parses minute-form and plain-second lap times', () => {
+    expect(parseLapTimeSeconds('1:23.456')).toBeCloseTo(83.456)
+    expect(parseLapTimeSeconds('83.456')).toBeCloseTo(83.456)
+  })
+
+  it('rejects empty, garbage, and non-positive values', () => {
+    expect(parseLapTimeSeconds('')).toBeNull()
+    expect(parseLapTimeSeconds(undefined)).toBeNull()
+    expect(parseLapTimeSeconds(null)).toBeNull()
+    expect(parseLapTimeSeconds('LAP 12')).toBeNull()
+    expect(parseLapTimeSeconds('-1:30.000')).toBeNull()
+  })
+})
+
+describe('recordStintSamples', () => {
+  it('accumulates one sample per completed lap across snapshots', () => {
+    const history = accumulate([
+      { lapNumber: 1, lastLapTime: '1:30.000' },
+      { lapNumber: 2, lastLapTime: '1:30.100' },
+      { lapNumber: 2, lastLapTime: '1:30.100' }, // repeated snapshot, same lap
+      { lapNumber: 3, lastLapTime: '1:30.200' },
+    ])
+    expect(history['1'].samples).toEqual([
+      { lap: 2, seconds: 90.1 },
+      { lap: 3, seconds: 90.2 },
+    ])
+  })
+
+  it('does not record a lap from the very first snapshot seen', () => {
+    const history = accumulate([{ lapNumber: 5, lastLapTime: '1:29.000' }])
+    expect(history['1'].samples).toEqual([])
+  })
+
+  it('replaces (not duplicates) a sample when the lap time is corrected', () => {
+    const history = accumulate([
+      { lapNumber: 1, lastLapTime: '1:30.000' },
+      { lapNumber: 2, lastLapTime: '1:30.500' },
+      { lapNumber: 2, lastLapTime: '1:30.400' }, // late correction for lap 2
+    ])
+    expect(history['1'].samples).toEqual([{ lap: 2, seconds: 90.4 }])
+  })
+
+  it('resets the stint on compound change and skips the next lap', () => {
+    const history = accumulate([
+      { lapNumber: 1, lastLapTime: '1:30.000', compound: 'SOFT', tyreAge: 1 },
+      { lapNumber: 2, lastLapTime: '1:30.100', compound: 'SOFT', tyreAge: 2 },
+      { lapNumber: 3, lastLapTime: '1:30.200', compound: 'SOFT', tyreAge: 3 },
+      // Boxed for hards: old samples dropped, out-lap (lap 4) excluded.
+      { lapNumber: 4, lastLapTime: '1:52.000', compound: 'HARD', tyreAge: 0 },
+      { lapNumber: 5, lastLapTime: '1:31.000', compound: 'HARD', tyreAge: 1 },
+      { lapNumber: 6, lastLapTime: '1:31.100', compound: 'HARD', tyreAge: 2 },
+    ])
+    expect(history['1'].samples).toEqual([
+      { lap: 5, seconds: 91.0 },
+      { lap: 6, seconds: 91.1 },
+    ])
+  })
+
+  it('resets on a fresh set of the same compound (tyre age drops)', () => {
+    const history = accumulate([
+      { lapNumber: 1, lastLapTime: '1:30.000', tyreAge: 10 },
+      { lapNumber: 2, lastLapTime: '1:30.100', tyreAge: 11 },
+      { lapNumber: 3, lastLapTime: '1:50.000', tyreAge: 0 }, // new mediums
+      { lapNumber: 4, lastLapTime: '1:30.500', tyreAge: 1 },
+    ])
+    expect(history['1'].samples).toEqual([{ lap: 4, seconds: 90.5 }])
+  })
+
+  it('excludes laps completed in the pit lane or on pit exit', () => {
+    const history = accumulate([
+      { lapNumber: 1, lastLapTime: '1:30.000' },
+      { lapNumber: 2, lastLapTime: '1:30.100' },
+      { lapNumber: 3, lastLapTime: '1:48.000', inPit: true }, // in-lap
+      { lapNumber: 4, lastLapTime: '1:45.000', pitOut: true, tyreAge: 0 }, // out-lap
+      { lapNumber: 5, lastLapTime: '1:30.300', tyreAge: 1 },
+    ])
+    expect(history['1'].samples).toEqual([{ lap: 5, seconds: 90.3 }])
+  })
+
+  it('prunes drivers missing from the snapshot and does not mutate input', () => {
+    const initial = accumulate([
+      { lapNumber: 1, lastLapTime: '1:30.000' },
+      { lapNumber: 2, lastLapTime: '1:30.100' },
+    ])
+    const next = recordStintSamples(initial, [makeInput({ racingNumber: '44' })])
+    expect(next['1']).toBeUndefined()
+    expect(next['44']).toBeDefined()
+    expect(initial['1'].samples).toHaveLength(1)
+  })
+})
+
+describe('degradationModel', () => {
+  const series = (times: number[], startLap = 1): StintSample[] =>
+    times.map((seconds, index) => ({ lap: startLap + index, seconds }))
+
+  it('fits the slope of a known linear series', () => {
+    const model = degradationModel(series([90.0, 90.1, 90.2, 90.3, 90.4]))
+    expect(model).not.toBeNull()
+    expect(model!.slope).toBeCloseTo(0.1, 5)
+    expect(model!.trend).toBe('degrading')
+  })
+
+  it('classifies improving and stable stints', () => {
+    expect(degradationModel(series([91.0, 90.8, 90.6, 90.4]))!.trend).toBe('improving')
+    expect(degradationModel(series([90.0, 90.01, 90.0, 90.02, 90.01]))!.trend).toBe('stable')
+    // A slope clearly under the threshold stays stable.
+    expect(DEG_SLOPE_THRESHOLD).toBeGreaterThan(0.03)
+    expect(degradationModel(series([90.0, 90.03, 90.06, 90.09, 90.12]))!.trend).toBe('stable')
+  })
+
+  it('excludes outliers more than ~5s off the stint median', () => {
+    // Clean laps follow +0.1s/lap; the 97.5 (traffic/spin) must not skew the fit.
+    const samples = series([90.0, 90.1, 97.5, 90.3, 90.4, 90.5])
+    expect(cleanStintSamples(samples)).toHaveLength(5)
+    const model = degradationModel(samples)
+    expect(model!.samples).toHaveLength(5)
+    expect(model!.slope).toBeCloseTo(0.1, 5)
+  })
+
+  it('returns null with fewer than MIN_CLEAN_LAPS clean laps', () => {
+    expect(degradationModel(series([90.0, 90.1, 90.2]))).toBeNull()
+    // 4 raw laps but one outlier -> only 3 clean -> still warming up
+    expect(degradationModel(series([90.0, 90.1, 90.2, 99.0]))).toBeNull()
+    expect(MIN_CLEAN_LAPS).toBe(4)
+  })
+})
+
+describe('formatSlope', () => {
+  it('renders signed seconds-per-lap', () => {
+    expect(formatSlope(0.083)).toBe('+0.08s/lap')
+    expect(formatSlope(-0.125)).toBe('−0.13s/lap')
+  })
+})
+
+describe('estimatePitRejoin', () => {
+  const ladder = [
+    makeRow('1', 1, 'VER'),
+    makeRow('4', 2, 'NOR', { Interval: '+5.0' }),
+    makeRow('44', 3, 'HAM', { Interval: '+10.0' }),
+    makeRow('14', 4, 'ALO', { Interval: '+15.0' }),
+    makeRow('16', 5, 'LEC', { Interval: '+20.0' }),
+  ]
+
+  it('projects the rejoin slot between the right cars', () => {
+    // VER pits from P1: NOR (5s) and HAM (15s cumulative) get past;
+    // ALO would be 30s back -> stays behind. Rejoin ~P3.
+    const estimate = estimatePitRejoin(ladder, '1')
+    expect(estimate).toEqual({
+      rejoinPosition: 3,
+      positionsLost: 2,
+      aheadCode: 'HAM',
+      behindCode: 'ALO',
+    })
+  })
+
+  it('keeps position when the cars behind are further than the pit loss', () => {
+    const estimate = estimatePitRejoin(ladder, '14')
+    // LEC is 20s behind ALO — inside the 22s window, so he gets past.
+    expect(estimate!.rejoinPosition).toBe(5)
+    expect(estimate!.aheadCode).toBe('LEC')
+    expect(estimate!.behindCode).toBeNull()
+
+    const wide = estimatePitRejoin(
+      [makeRow('1', 1, 'VER'), makeRow('4', 2, 'NOR', { Interval: `+${PIT_LOSS_SECONDS + 3}.0` })],
+      '1',
+    )
+    expect(wide!.rejoinPosition).toBe(1)
+    expect(wide!.positionsLost).toBe(0)
+    expect(wide!.behindCode).toBe('NOR')
+  })
+
+  it('stops the ladder walk at lapped cars and skips pitted/retired ones', () => {
+    const estimate = estimatePitRejoin(
+      [
+        makeRow('1', 1, 'VER'),
+        makeRow('4', 2, 'NOR', { Interval: '+5.0', InPit: true }), // mid-stop, excluded
+        makeRow('44', 3, 'HAM', { Interval: '+10.0' }),
+        makeRow('16', 4, 'LEC', { Interval: '1L' }), // lapped — walk ends here
+        makeRow('14', 5, 'ALO', { Interval: '+2.0' }),
+      ],
+      '1',
+    )
+    expect(estimate!.positionsLost).toBe(1) // only HAM gets past
+    expect(estimate!.rejoinPosition).toBe(2)
+    expect(estimate!.aheadCode).toBe('HAM')
+    expect(estimate!.behindCode).toBe('LEC')
+  })
+
+  it('returns null for unknown drivers', () => {
+    expect(estimatePitRejoin(ladder, '99')).toBeNull()
+  })
+})
+
+describe('stintInputFromRow', () => {
+  it('maps tower rows into accumulator inputs', () => {
+    const row = makeRow('4', 2, 'NOR', { NumberOfLaps: 12, LastLapTime: '1:29.900' })
+    row.Tyre = { Compound: 'HARD', New: false, Age: 7 }
+    expect(stintInputFromRow(row)).toEqual({
+      racingNumber: '4',
+      lapNumber: 12,
+      lastLapTime: '1:29.900',
+      compound: 'HARD',
+      tyreAge: 7,
+      inPit: false,
+      pitOut: false,
+    })
+  })
+})